Brigadier Ewen Murchison from the UK Ministry of Defence talks about futures forecasting in national and international security.

What is futures forecasting and how is it different to ‘crystal ball gazing’? Can we reliably predict the future of warfare and international security, or does strategic forecasting aim to achieve something entirely different?

In this episode of the National Security Podcast, Chris Farnham finds out about forecasting strategic futures with Brigadier Ewen Murchison from the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre of the UK Ministry of Defence. They also discuss how offensive strategic weapons are changing, and answer whether arts and culture can help military planners and policymakers better plan for what’s ahead.

Ewen Murchison is the Head of Futures and Strategic Analysis at the UK Ministry of Defence’s Development, Concept and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) – an internal think tank that has been responsible for publishing the Global Strategic Trends for nearly 20 years. BRIG Murchison is a Royal Marine whose career has spanned a range of roles within the MoD.

Chris Farnham is the presenter of the National Security Podcast. He joined the National Security College in June 2015 and is currently Senior Outreach and Policy Officer. His career focus has been on geopolitics with experience working in and out of China for a number of years as well as operating in Australia and Southeast Asia.

Show notes | The following were referred to in this episode:

Global Strategic Trends: the future starts today

Global Trends: Paradox of Progress

National Security College, Futures Hub

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies: Global Trends

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