By: dzbytek

dzbytek — Fri, 31 Jul 2015 11:53:25 +0000

“The ANZUS Alliance in an Ascending Asia”
This is the most important study for Australia security and development.
My comments:
Australia – USA military co-operation is crucial today due to traditional way of thinking about Australia’s future but it should be considered as one of options within long run strategy, important today but Canberra should take into account the following factors shaping the world of the future:
1. Demography
2. Competition for raw materials
3. New technologies
It is not the most important question the size – Australia is a country of continental geographic size, but population of 22 million is in range of rather smaller-medium in size European country and could not be compared not only to China or India, but also to other Asian countries. Only technology can counterbalance this disparity, but due to quick industrial development of Indonesia and South-East Asian countries and mainly mining profile of Australian production means that value of Australia as a partner will be diminishing if knowledge–based production will not be introduced on a big scale. Australia has ability to develop new knowledge base industry in the manner of Israel or Scandinavian countries, but must start as soon as possible.
Second point, the most important for ANZUS future is not “Asia pivot” of Washington DC, but changing structure of US population. Barak Obama has been elected twice by Afro-Americans and Latinos. White population of the United Stated in 2013 presidential elections has been voting for Obama’s competitor – Mr. Romney – 59 per cent and only 39 per cent preferred black contender. Black population in 93 per cent voted in favor of Obama and the same has been in 71 per cent done by Latinos. Black and Latinos today compose adequately 12 per cent and 17 per cent of whole population, but because they voted in bigger numbers then their population share, Obama was unable to reclaim victory. Future mobilization of white is in vain – they share of population from the level of 61.8 per cent in 2015 to the level of 42.6 per cent in 2060 when Black share will augment reasonably from 13,2% to 14,7% in 2060 but Latinos increase is dramatic – from 17.8 per cent today to 31 per cent in 2060. Descendants of Asian origin (India, Vietnam, Korea etc.) increase their share from 5.3 per cent to 8.2 per cent, multiracial – from 2.6 per cent to 6.4 per cent (source: US Bureau of Consensus, 2015). Behind these figure we can see sea change of culture – US no longer will be country of prevailing Anglo-Saxon civilization – Mexican and others from south of Rio Grande Reconquista of former Indian lands means that in the second half of XXI century the typical US citizen will be colored and black, mostly catholic but in Indian way of practicing with roots in Aztec or Maya tradition. Moreover also elites will be different. According to Pew Institute Forum on Religion and Public Life (Landscape Survey “Religious Affiliation of American Public” Washington DC, 2014) in 2012 the highest level of education have Hinduists (75 per cent of total adult population has university degree), next are reformist Judaists (65 per cent) but members of Anglican Church only 54 per cent. Future generation of Americans will be Asian in mentality and this is not only “Asia pivot” of economic and military changing heart of Washington policy but mental change of ordinary and elite US citizen. USA will no longer will be European offshoot, like Australia or Canada, but more similar to India – also a country of English language, but only.
For Australia it means that there will be no more special relations with USA on base of common culture – in contrary Australia will be an alien civilization, similar to European. Thus actual European Union experience is the best school to be observed. Europe is slowly abandoned, left to cope without US umbrella with challenges which in fact cannot be solved in a way usable in years of confrontation with Soviet Union.
New challenges faced by developed world demonstrated that traditional solution of border security is not solving problem of growing infiltration of young people from Asia and Africa – uneducated, of culture distanced to civilizational progress, still of strong personal relations to their family, tribe, religion and therefore difficult to be assimilated in any innovative hungry society. The only opportunity for these people in their own countries as well as in any other is emigration. Europe is not able to stop them either,so absorbs them due to lack of real common policy able to invent solution. This crisis showed, that an alliance, even so closed like the European Union, facing such challenge, quickly disintegrates even against their own common interest.
South and South-East Asia are regions of growing number of the same problem, and Australia is the best option for them. For any country millions of immigrants are crucial problem for security and stability and any Alliance could help.
New technologies like replacement of crude oil and gas or much smaller demand create for oil reach countries situation of lack of resources forcing their population and millions of guest workers to emigrate to the places still enjoying stability.
If the crude oil could be replaced, raw materials, like metals’ ore cannot – can anybody expect that in such situation China or Indonesia will be able to stop their own citizens to take over underpopulated, reach in resources country? Still it is only a black speculation, but it should be taken into account. It is strategic demand – for today, maybe next ten or twenty years at the best is not a real prospect, but reality which if happen must be met by ready.
It is future scenario, but as written by Mr. Yuval Noah Harari from Hebrew University in Jerusalem (“Sapiens: A Brief History of Mankind”) we must be prepared to the worse. Israelis feel the future world through their borders but maritime distances are manageable by determined people.
Australia can use their developed human resources n alliance with countries in her region, endangered by similar situation – Japan, Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam – able to exist on their own (maybe apart of Japan, their strategy force them to co-operate more deeply). Together they are real force able to counterbalance China. India is desirable partner, but due to the fact that facing Islamist should be taken into account with care. I spent twenty years in South Asia, and India’s 150 million Muslims could destabilize this country together with Pakistan – the country on the brink of collapse.
Best regards, Daniel Samotus – Zbytek

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