The ruling in the case between China and the Philippines over competing claims in the South China Sea will strain relations between Manila and Beijing, but it’ll also impact Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as threatening ASEAN unity.
Looking back in the future, observers of the escalating tensions in the South China Sea will point to 2012 as the pivotal year for the maritime boundary disputes between China and Taiwan and five Southeast Asian states in the South China Sea. That was the year that China coercively gained control of Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines, and for the first time, ASEAN foreign ministers failed to issue a joint statement at the end of their meeting due to disuniting disagreements over whether the South China Sea should even be mentioned.
Now the dispute, which will soon be ruled on by the United Nations Arbitration Panel under the Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) threatens to not only exacerbate tensions between Manila and Beijing, but could also cause collateral benefit and damage to the other countries with competing maritime boundary and territorial claims.
Before the 2012 setbacks, the Aquino administration showed no signs of moving beyond the Philippines’ approach of being the loudest and most persistent voice in ASEAN for the Association to take a stronger line on these disputes and China’s actions in the South China Sea.
In response to China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and a loss of faith in the ASEAN-led process to moderate these disputes, in January 2013, the Aquino administration chose to exercise its legal right and challenge the legality of China’s nine-dash line claim to the majority of the South China Sea. The Philippine case against China’s expansive claim based on ‘historical rights’ does not only affect the Philippine and Chinese claims but the other five claimants and ASEAN. If the United Nations’ Arbitration Tribunal rules in favour of Manila, it likely will benefit the present Indonesian and Malaysian positions on their South China Sea claims, complicate Vietnam’s, and damage Taiwan’s present claim as well as ASEAN unity and centrality on this issue.
Indonesia’s position is that there is no maritime boundary dispute between Indonesia and China as China’s 9-dash line claim is without legal basis and Indonesia does not recognise China’s claim. Indonesia’s claim in the South China Sea is based upon its continental shelf, as is that of Malaysia. A ruling favourable to Manila would validate the present legal positions of Indonesia and Malaysia.
For Vietnam, a positive ruling for Manila also would support Vietnam’s rejection of China’s nine-dash line claim. However, Vietnam’s own expansive maritime boundary and territorial claim in the South China Sea does not rely solely on its continental shelf but, as with China, also on Vietnam’s historic rights. If the ruling on the Philippine case limits or discredits China’s historic rights basis for its nine-dash line claim, this could be problematic for Hanoi. Part of Vietnam’s rejection of China’s nine-dash line claim is that China’s historical rights are much less compelling than those of Vietnam.
A positive ruling for Manila could have the biggest impact on Taiwan’s expansive claim to the South China Sea. The People’s Republic of China’s nine-dash line claim is based on the 1947 claim by the Kuomintang government in China that is the basis of Taiwan’s claim. Hence a ruling against China’s claim would act as a ruling against Taiwan’s claim as well.
In Taiwan, there is a partisan debate over Taiwan’s expansive claim in the South China Sea with the present Kuomintang administration reiterating the claim and voices on the opposition Democratic Progressive Party side pondering a more limited claim around the main island Taiwan controls, Taiping island. If the DPP wins the January 2016 presidential election, a subsequent Tribunal ruling favourable to Manila may add to calls to reduce Taiwan’s South China Sea claim and further differentiate Taiwan’s approach to the South China Sea from that of China.
Finally, a positive ruling for Manila could stretch the already frayed elastic band of ASEAN unity on the South China Sea disputes. A positive ruling could encourage some of the five Southeast Asian states with disputes with China to push ASEAN, a consensus-based grouping, to take a firmer position against the Chinese claim. ASEAN, at the very least, would have to agree on its response to a positive ruling and what that means for the decades-long process of negotiating a South China Sea Code of Conduct with China. Some of the five Southeast Asian states without disputes with China in the South China Sea, as in 2012, likely would continue to oppose stronger ASEAN language and action.
China already has claimed that the Philippines decision to file a case against China runs contrary to this Code of Conduct process. A tribunal ruling unfavourable to China likely would inflame China’s ire towards the Philippines and provide Beijing, in its eyes, a reason to further delay Code of Conduct negotiations or even walk away from them.
The Philippine case against China is definitely ground-breaking. A ruling in favour of Manila likely would be of collateral benefit to Indonesia and Malaysia and of collateral damage to Taiwan’s present claim and to ASEAN unity and centrality on this issue. Vietnam’s present claim could receive a bit of both.
Win or lose we made a stand to fight for what is ours, to what is right and lawful, unlike the other claimants who chose to wait and see a mere spectator. If only ASEAN would stand united in this issue China would never win in any confrontation.
I think we will win the case, implementation of the ruling is the problem..
[…] ISEAS Senior Fellow Malcolm Cook analyzes the South China Sea dispute that will soon be ruled on by UNCLOS. Read it here. […]
on tthe other side, who would benefit if the decisions is favorable to china? secondly, what is the likely scenario in the south china sea if china wins the decision? and thirdly would what would the impact of this policy to intire global market should china wins?
The International Law of The Sea must be followed by all nations in all parts of the world, without these law, there will be chaos.
Any ruling, pro or con, should be seen as positive to all claimants and the rest of the world. The filing of the case by the Philippines is a test case for the society of nations in today’s evolving state relationship to adhere to the rule of law. Nations cannot shun from any conflict as it is always conspicuously attached to every state’s national interests. It is best for nations to manage conflict. Conflict itself is insignificant, and the most important thing is agreeing how to peacefully manage it. Only a rule-based settlement can conflict be manage without resorting to war.
The question is.. Will Beijing abide to the outcome of the case esp. If the ruling would favor Manila and If China defy the ruling whose gonna implement the ruling? what would be the next step to ensure peace and stability in the region?
G7 will give china economic sanction if they defy the UN RULING.
ASEAN is not a military alliance, for that we need to revive SEATO asia’s equivalent to NATO
Its territorial claims over WEST PHILIPPINE sea not south China sea! Claro po.. Its not south, its west Philippine sea!
[…] Meanwhile, as ASEAN states search for unity, in the Hague, the Philippines' arbitration case against China's island construction in the South China Sea continues. (See Malcolm Cook's explanation of the potential winners and losers of the arbitration here.) […]
[…] Meanwhile, as ASEAN states search for unity, in the Hague, the Philippines' arbitration case against China's island construction in the South China Sea continues. (See Malcolm Cook’s explanation of the potential winners and losers of the arbitration here.) […]
Why would the tribunal speculate on the impact of their decision? Will that influence their decision or are they going to decide based on legality which the Philippines is seeking.? The Philippines is clamoring for justice. That is the thing that matters. No one should compromise justice.
Whatever will be the decision of the UNCLOS must be in favor of the TRUTH hence, cannot satisfy everybody then let it be. What’s important is there is already an action and a decision that must be respected as a rule of law! China or whoever will be badly affected must learn to respect the rule of law ‘coz that means moving forward than continously suffering from gridlock increasing everyday the tensions in the South Chima Sea and the West Philippine Sea. A sudden or an accidental firing could already trigger a WW III if TRUTH and JUSTICE will always be delayed! This UNCLOS Action and decision will strengthen the UN as an effective arm in the dispensation of peace and justice!
Hoping .peace unity and prosperity. between Philippines and china. God bless Philippines.
no matter how big China is, it’s still small compared to all nations that are against it and it’s claim.
Then be it done according to the rule of UNCLOS. Malaysia is a little bit apprehensive because they are dependent of china while the rest is against china… HOPING that the ruling will be in favor of the Phils.
[…] (See Malcolm Cook’s explanation of the potential winners and losers of the arbitration here.)If ASEAN can find unity at this meeting on the South China Sea, it will have a far stronger hand […]
It’s west Philippine sea not south China sea
There’s no doubt that Philippines is a small country compare to China, but just like the story of David vs Goliath, we the Filipino people just need to be smart and need to know where to beat China in their own game.
Could’ve included his thoughts on what if the ruling will be in China’s favor…a contradiction of the law means might is right and there goes World Order
Once the ruling is adverse to China, their dovish leaders must move to oust the hawkish bullying members of the Politburo !
You can’t be sure with Taiwan because of its cold war with China.
Whatever the result of the case that have been filed to the tribunal court, It will not give any assurances that china will follow or give up.
But for me I can already overview what will happen., I did not wish for a war but if it is the only reason to get our rights it must be done,
First It will stand for a Stand off, second is calling for attention to all Allies for both parties third is throwing or dropping some Smoke flares.
100% the chines govt’ will not give it up or live that place, they’ll rather stand up to the mob and put this issue in war games… the asean nation is absolutely would not support theire allies that is why filipino people should prepare for its teretory to defend..
….to the chinese communist leadership…their claim in the china sea is common sense…but to the whole wide world….it is an absurdity.
It’s not gonna work. China will not give way, adhere or move even an inch on their grasp of the disputed territories. As for Malaysia of course they will side with China. They’re of the same color and feathers. They both stole philippine territories.
All country around The world follow the UNITED NATION UNCLOS to avoid regional or world war 3 and scrap all nuclear weapons in the world. Tnx
Philippines is Friendly and it will benefit everyone if PH wins.
I hope U.N. will have a good decision to stop China from reclaiming West Phil. Sea!
We hope that righteousness will prevail. ……
It is high time to create a new defense alliance in Asia…like NATO structure…
US
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
INDIA
PH
VIETNAM
SINGAPORE
Could be the core members…
UN must give decision asap to prevent further tension in the West Phil Sea! Justice delayed means justice denied! UN tribunal wake up, hurry up so long as there is time to persevere! God Bless us all!
Dirty tactics.
A very good impact, small countries will be heard, they will start to stand side by side to counter big bully country like china, Russia and USA!
It may come to that_straining the relationship. If that is what will happen, then so be it… Be it in favor of China or favor of the Philippines, at least the issue will and shall be resolved. Anothir thing for sure is :
Should the Philippines get a favorable decision, can the Philippines and the International Community be able to implement, enforce the ruling…?
The Philippines is in a terrible situation, where hostilities could break out both _Foreign (China) and Domestic_MILF/BIFF/Malaysia.
For this situation, we have our leaders (politicians) _National and Local to blame. They caused this.
Good read
China will be the sure loser,a superpower and permanent security council member of UN…yet so naive and refuse to honor UNCLOS? A greater cooperation among ASEAN nations minus Myammar,Cambodia and Laos will bring China to more economic problems
Can we just be friends ?
Well wether you like it or not, foreign help will still depend on the benefit it will give to other countries, japan is going to be one of our best ally in thos situation, america? It needs to be cornered first before helping us, by the looks of it uncle bob is still trying weigh its options, not much of an allied mentality if you ask me. . vietnam, hope so. Theyre like japan but a bit less in terms of military force, so theyre gonna see if military action even feasible. Australia, i so hope so, but there is a big chance they wont. . china plays a big part in their economy. . and given that freedom of navigation on the area is at risk, other countries are willing to overlook it for the sake of their chinese ties. . better place our bets on japan and the hastened strengthening of our armed forces.
ASEAN it self have a border issue one another, malay with indonesia, malay with Philippine, philippine with malay, Philippine with Vietnam, so it will not going together for facing with China
China by erecting facilities in the disputed territories knew it would lose if the case is brought to a third party arbitration so she just dug her heels deeper, which only war can uproot.
Of course the Phils. couldn’t afford it and so does the ASEAN, therefore China will just continue to occupy those territories as long as she wants and it appears she wants them badly!
Favorable ruling for the PH will mean moral and legal ascendancy and strengthened negotiating position if such talks should materialize. In the end, the object is peace and soft power cooperation and putting sovereignty claims in backburners like in Antarctica. Collective security, not an arms race, is needed. PH, in case it “wins” in the Arbitral Court, can take the lead in initiating collective security talks based on ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) as framework.
[…] There are signs, however, that consensus has not been reached on a number of issues including the South China Sea and relations with China and the selection of Vietnam’s future leadership. This could result in a […]
Study suggests that the Philippines is the ancestral homeland of Polynesians
http://www.ancient-origins.net/news-evolution-human-origins/new-study-suggests-philippines-ancestral-homeland-polynesians-001463
The nine dash line is invalid. The south china sea belongs to the lapita people, polynesians/ Austronesians. Histroically speaking it should be renamed the “Austronesian sea” and returned to its people